2021 Canadian federal election

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2021 Canadian federal election
← 2019 September 20, 2021 (2021-09-20) 45th →
338 seats in the House of Commons
170 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout62.3%[1] (Decrease 4.7 pp)
  First party Second party Third party
 
Trudeau G7 Cropped.jpeg
Erin O'Toole March 18, 2021 portrait (cropped).jpg
Yves-Francois Blanchet in October 2009.jpg
Leader Justin Trudeau Erin O'Toole Yves-François Blanchet
Party Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois
Leader since April 14, 2013 August 24, 2020 January 17, 2019
Leader's seat Papineau Durham Beloeil—Chambly
Last election 157 seats, 33.12% 121 seats, 34.34% 32 seats, 7.63%
Seats before 155 119 32
Seats won 159[a] 119 33
Seat change Increase4 Steady Increase1
Popular vote 5,556,261 5,747,401 1,301,609
Percentage 32.62% 33.74% 7.64%
Swing Decrease0.50pp Decrease0.60pp Increase0.01pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Jagmeet Singh at the 2nd National Bike Summit - Ottawa - 2018 (42481105871) (cropped v2).jpg
Annamie Paul in Toronto Regent Park (cropped).jpg
Maxime Bernier in 2017 - cropped.jpg
Leader Jagmeet Singh Annamie Paul Maxime Bernier
Party New Democratic Green People's
Leader since October 1, 2017 October 3, 2020 September 14, 2018
Leader's seat Burnaby South Ran in Toronto Centre (lost) Ran in Beauce (lost)
Last election 24 seats, 15.98% 3 seats, 6.55% 0 seats, 1.62%
Seats before 24 2 0
Seats won 25 2 0
Seat change Increase1 Steady Steady
Popular vote 3,036,730 397,017 841,015
Percentage 17.83% 2.33% 4.94%
Swing Increase1.85pp Decrease4.22pp Increase3.32pp
Canada Election 2021 Results Map.svg
Canada Election 2021 Results Map Gains.svg
Prime Minister before election

Justin Trudeau
Liberal

Prime Minister after election

Justin Trudeau
Liberal

The 2021 Canadian federal election (formally the 44th Canadian general election) was held on September 20, 2021, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The writs of election were issued by Governor General Mary May Simon on August 15, 2021, when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau requested the dissolution of parliament for a snap election.[2]

Trudeau won a third term as prime minister, his second minority government.[3] Though the Liberals were hoping to win a majority government to govern alone,[4] the results were mostly unchanged from the 2019 Canadian federal election.[5] The Liberals won the most seats at 159[a]; as this falls short of the 170 seats needed for a majority in the House of Commons, they are expected to form a minority government with support from other parties.[6][7] The Liberals set a record for the lowest vote share of a party that would go on to form government, winning 32.6% of the popular vote.[8]

The Conservatives, led by Erin O'Toole, maintained 119 seats and will continue as the Official Opposition. The Bloc Québécois, led by Yves-François Blanchet, won 33 seats. The New Democratic Party, led by Jagmeet Singh, won 25 seats. The Green Party maintained 2 seats but party leader Annamie Paul was defeated for the third[b] time in her riding of Toronto Centre where she placed fourth; the party won 394,000 votes nationally and 2.3% share of the vote, a third of what they won in the 2019 federal election.[9][10][11] Paul resigned as Green Party leader a week after the election.[12] The People's Party did not win any seats, as party leader Maxime Bernier was defeated for the second time[c] in his riding of Beauce; however, they received more than 842,000 votes nationally, or just below 5% share of the vote.[9]

Background

The 2019 Canadian federal election resulted in the Liberals, led by incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, losing both their parliamentary majority and the popular vote but nevertheless winning the most seats and remaining in office as a minority government. The Conservatives, who had gained seats and won the popular vote, continued as the Official Opposition. The Bloc Québécois regained official party status and became the third party, replacing the New Democrats in that role, with the latter party losing seats but maintaining official party status as the fourth party. Although the Greens increased their seats in the House of Commons, they ultimately failed to achieve the required number of MPs (twelve) for official party status, and no other party won any seats.[13][14]

In the immediate aftermath of the 2019 election, all leaders initially announced that they would continue as the heads of their respective parties into the next session of Parliament.[15][16][17] Elizabeth May said that she might not lead the Greens into the 44th election, and ultimately resigned as Green Party leader on November 4, 2019.[18][19] On November 6, 2019, the members of the Conservative caucus decided to not adopt a measure which would have given them the ability to remove Andrew Scheer as leader; his leadership would still have been reviewed at the party's next convention, which was scheduled for April 2020.[20][21] On December 12, Scheer announced his intention to resign as leader.[22] He stayed on until his successor Erin O'Toole was chosen and remains as the MP for Regina—Qu'Appelle.[23][24]

On August 15, 2021, after a request from Prime Minister Trudeau, the governor general dissolved parliament and called an election for September 20.[2] The election was called on the same day as the fall of Kabul. In the first two weeks of the campaign, Trudeau received criticism for not acting fast enough in the face of the 2021 Taliban offensive to evacuate Afghans who supported Canada's military and diplomatic efforts during the War in Afghanistan.[25]

Parties and standings

The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2019 federal election, and the standings at dissolution. An expected by-election in Haldimand—Norfolk to fill the vacant seat was rendered moot by the commencement of the general election.

A polling station on election day
Name Ideology Position Leader 2019 result At dissolution
Votes (%) Seats
Liberal Liberalism
Social liberalism 		Centre to centre-left Justin Trudeau
33.12%
157 / 338
155 / 338
Conservative Conservatism
Economic liberalism
Fiscal conservatism 		Centre-right to right-wing Erin O'Toole
34.34%
121 / 338
119 / 338
Bloc Québécois Quebec nationalism
Social democracy 		Centre-left Yves-François Blanchet
7.63%
32 / 338
32 / 338
New Democratic Social democracy
Democratic socialism 		Centre-left to left-wing Jagmeet Singh
15.98%
24 / 338
24 / 338
Green Green politics Annamie Paul
6.55%
3 / 338
2 / 338
Independents N/A
0.41%
1 / 338
5 / 338
Vacant seats N/A –
0 / 338
1 / 338

Incumbents not running for re-election

31 MPs chose not to run in the 2021 federal election:

Member of Parliament Electoral district Province or territory Date announced
  Will Amos[26] Pontiac Quebec August 8, 2021
  Larry Bagnell[27] Yukon Yukon August 5, 2021
  Navdeep Bains[28] Mississauga—Malton Ontario January 12, 2021
  Lyne Bessette[29] Brome—Missisquoi Quebec July 16, 2021
  Bob Bratina[30] Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Ontario May 17, 2021
  Wayne Easter[31] Malpeque Prince Edward Island June 14, 2021
  Pat Finnigan[32] Miramichi—Grand Lake New Brunswick June 14, 2021
  Paul Lefebvre[33] Sudbury Ontario March 12, 2021
  Karen McCrimmon[34] Kanata—Carleton Ontario August 8, 2021
  Catherine McKenna[35] Ottawa Centre Ontario June 27, 2021
  Geoff Regan[36] Halifax West Nova Scotia March 31, 2021
  Gagan Sikand[37] Mississauga—Streetsville Ontario August 15, 2021
  Adam Vaughan[38] Spadina—Fort York Ontario August 8, 2021
  Kate Young[39] London West Ontario March 18, 2021
  Steven Blaney[40] Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Quebec July 14, 2021
  Peter Kent[41][42] Thornhill Ontario November 19, 2020
  Tom Lukiwski[43][44] Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan Saskatchewan May 26, 2021
  Phil McColeman[45][46] Brantford—Brant Ontario December 30, 2020
  Cathy McLeod[47][48] Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo British Columbia February 4, 2021
  Bruce Stanton[49] Simcoe North Ontario June 25, 2020
  David Sweet[50] Flamborough—Glanbrook Ontario January 4, 2021
  David Yurdiga[51] Fort McMurray—Cold Lake Alberta August 14, 2021
  Louise Charbonneau[52] Trois-Rivières Quebec January 14, 2021
  Simon Marcil[52] Mirabel Quebec January 14, 2021
  Scott Duvall[53][54] Hamilton Mountain Ontario March 5, 2021
  Jack Harris[55][56] St. John's East Newfoundland and Labrador June 11, 2021
  Mumilaaq Qaqqaq[57] Nunavut Nunavut May 20, 2021
  Yasmin Ratansi[d] Don Valley East Ontario No announcement
  Ramesh Sangha[d] Brampton Centre Ontario No announcement
  Marwan Tabbara[d] Kitchener South—Hespeler Ontario No announcement
  Jody Wilson-Raybould[58] Vancouver Granville British Columbia July 8, 2021

Incumbent not renominated

The following MP was not renominated by his party:

Member of Parliament Electoral district Province or territory Date announced
  Michel Boudrias[59] Terrebonne Quebec August 4, 2021

Timeline

See also: 43rd Canadian Parliament
Changes in seats held (2020–21)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Kitchener South—Hespeler June 6, 2020[60] Marwan Tabbara █ Liberal Resigned from caucus[a 1] █ Independent
Toronto Centre August 17, 2020[61] Bill Morneau █ Liberal Resigned[a 2] October 26, 2020 Marci Ien █ Liberal
York Centre September 1, 2020[62] Michael Levitt █ Liberal Resigned[a 3] October 26, 2020 Ya'ara Saks █ Liberal
Don Valley East November 9, 2020[63] Yasmin Ratansi █ Liberal Resigned from caucus[a 4] █ Independent
Hastings—Lennox and Addington January 20, 2021[64][65] Derek Sloan █ Conservative Expelled from caucus [a 5] █ Independent
Brampton Centre January 25, 2021[66][67] Ramesh Sangha █ Liberal Removed from caucus [a 6] █ Independent
Haldimand—Norfolk May 11, 2021[68] Diane Finley █ Conservative Resigned █ Vacant
Fredericton June 10, 2021[69] Jenica Atwin █ Green Changed affiliation █ Liberal
  1. ^ laying of assault charges unrelated to parliament
  2. ^ to pursue leadership of OECD
  3. ^ to become a non-profit executive
  4. ^ revelation of nepotism in staff hiring
  5. ^ accepted a political donation from white supremacist Paul Fromm
  6. ^ made unsupported allegations that multiple other Liberal MPs harboured support for the Khalistan movement

2019

2020

  • August 23–24, 2020: Erin O'Toole is elected leader of the Conservative Party.
  • October 3, 2020: Annamie Paul is elected leader of the Green Party.

2021

  • August 15, 2021: Parliament is dissolved and writs of election are dropped.[70]
  • September 2, 2021: 1st French language leaders' debate, organized by TVA Nouvelles.
  • September 8, 2021: 2nd French language leaders' debate, organized by the Leaders' Debate Commission.
  • September 9, 2021: English language leaders' debate, organized by the Leaders' Debate Commission.
  • September 10–13, 2021: Advance polling.
  • September 14, 2021: Last day to apply online for mail-in voting. Last day to vote by Special Ballot at a Returning Office.
  • September 20, 2021: Election Day.

Endorsements

Endorsements received by each party
Type Liberal Conservative New Democratic Bloc Québécois Green People's
Media Toronto Star[71] National Post[72]
Toronto Sun[73] 		Le Devoir[74]
Public figures Hillary Clinton[75]
Bruce Heyman[76]
Andrew Leach[76]
Hazel McCallion[77]
Barack Obama[75]
Andrew Weaver[78]
 Conrad Black[79]
Celina Caesar-Chavannes[80]
Rick Hillier[81]
François Legault[82]
Brian Lilley[83]
Mark Norman[84] 		Cindy Blackstock[85]
Bernie Sanders[86]
Rashida Tlaib[87]
Unions and business associations United Steelworkers[88]

Campaign

Liberal Party

On August 27, 2021, Justin Trudeau, the Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader, was forced to cancel a campaign rally set for Bolton, Ontario, over security concerns. There were reports of dozens of protestors yelling obscenities at Trudeau. This was not the first time, as there were previous incidents of protesters showing up at his rallies, with individuals criticizing COVID-19 vaccines and public health measures.[89]

On September 14, 2021, Trudeau invited notable politicians, including former Liberal Prime Minister Jean Chrétien and former Mississauga mayor Hazel McCallion, to a campaign rally in Brampton.[90]

Conservative Party

On August 24 2020, Erin O'Toole, a Member of Parliament (MP) and former Minister of Veterans Affairs under former Prime Minister Stephen Harper, defeated three other candidates, notably his main rival, former cabinet minister Peter MacKay, to become the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada. Although he ran on a 'true blue' platform,[91] O'Toole immediately softened his rhetoric and took a more moderate approach after becoming party leader. In March 2021, O'Toole announced a carbon pricing plan to replace the current Liberal carbon tax, despite previous Conservative opposition to any form of a carbon tax. O'Toole's plan included a levy from fuel purchases that would go into a tax-free "low carbon savings account". The plan was to start at $20 per tonne and go to a maximum of $50 per tonne, compared to the Liberals' plan, in which it would start at $40 per tonne and go up to $170 per tonne by 2030.[92]

In September 2021, during the election campaign, O'Toole changed his position on gun control. Reverting from his initial promise of repealing Prime Minister Trudeau's May 2020 ban on assault weapons, he changed his stance on the issue, promising that he would not repeal the ban.[93]

Political commentators and analysts described O'Toole's leadership as shifting the Conservative Party to the political centre.[94]

New Democratic Party

The leader of the New Democratic Party, Jagmeet Singh, did not rule out the possibility of working with the Conservatives if the Tories had won a minority government.[95]

Bloc Québécois

During the English-language federal leaders' debate on September 9, the moderator, Shachi Kurl, controversially asked Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet, "You denied that Quebec has problems with racism yet you defend legislation such as bills 96 and 21, which marginalize religious minorities, anglophones and allophones. Quebec is recognized as a distinct society, but for those outside the province, please help them understand why your party also supports these discriminatory laws." This question prompted Blanchet, to challenge her use of the word "discriminatory". Blanchet's response to Kurl was seen as a turning point in the Bloc's election campaign, as they saw an upsurge in the polls days after the debate.[96]

The Bloc Québécois reportedly had set a campaign target of winning 40 out of the 78 Quebec seats.[97]

Green Party

Then Green Party had experienced a period of infighting, beginning in June 2021, when one of its three MPs, Jenica Atwin, crossed the floor to join the Liberal Party over a dispute regarding the 2021 Israel–Palestine crisis. Although there were calls for the party leader, Annamie Paul, to resign, she stayed on as leader through the federal election. Paul did not start the election with a seat in the House of Commons, and spent the majority of the election campaigning in her chosen riding of Toronto Centre and failed to win the seat.

People's Party

The People's Party of Canada, led by former Conservative cabinet minister Maxime Bernier, enjoyed a surge of support in the polls in August and September, going from as low as 3% to as high as 10%. Some political commentators believe that the sudden increase in support came as a result of large groups of individuals opposing COVID-19 pandemic vaccine passports, as the People's Party is known for its opposition towards COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccine mandates.[98]

Campaign slogans

Party English French (translation)
Liberal Party of Canada "Forward. For Everyone."[99] "Avançons ensemble." ("Let's move forward together.")
Conservative Party of Canada "Secure the Future"[100] "Agir pour l'avenir." ("Act for the Future.")
New Democratic Party "Fighting for You"[101] "Oser ensemble" ("Dare Together")
Bloc Québécois
N/A
 "Québécois" ("Quebecers")
Green Party of Canada "Be Daring."[102] "Faites le saut." ("Take the Leap.") and "Il faut de l'audace." ("Boldness is needed.")
People's Party of Canada "Common Sense Policies that put Canadians First" "Des politiques fondées sur le gros bon sens qui priorisent des Canadiens" (as in English)

Policy platforms

Party Full platform PDF Reference
Liberal Party of Canada Forward. For Everyone. [103]
Conservative Party of Canada Canada's Recovery Plan [104]
New Democratic Party Ready for Better [105]
Bloc Québécois Québécois [106]
Green Party of Canada Platform 21. Be Daring. [107]
People's Party of Canada Not available (see party platform) [108]

Leaders' debates

Main article: Canadian leaders' debates § 2021 debates

In June 2020, the Leaders' Debates Commission released its report reviewing the 2019 election debates and making recommendations for future debates.[109][110] The report recommended a permanent and publicly funded commission be tasked with organizing two debates every future election. It also called for the commission, not the government, to set the criteria for participation in future election debates.[109][110] Below are the scheduled debates:

2021 Canadian general election debates
Date Organizers Location Language Moderator  P  Participant  A  Absent (invited)  I  Invited  N  Not invited Source
Trudeau O'Toole Blanchet Singh Paul Bernier
September 2, 2021 TVA Nouvelles Montreal French Pierre Bruneau P P P P N N [111][112]
September 8, 2021 Leaders' Debates Commission Canadian Museum of History, Gatineau French Patrice Roy P P P P P N [113][114]
September 9, 2021 English Shachi Kurl P P P P P N [113][114]

Opinion polls

Main articles: Opinion polling for the 2021 Canadian federal election and Opinion polling for the 2021 Canadian federal election by constituency
Opinion polling for
Canadian federal elections
2008
Opinion polls
2011
Opinion polls • By constituency
2015
Opinion polls • By constituency
2019
Opinion polls • By constituency
2021
Opinion polls • By constituency
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the campaign period of the 2021 Canadian federal election. Trendlines are 25-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 2021 Canadian federal election. Trendlines are 30-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

Results

Graph of Canadian national election results, 1993–2021; omitted are minor parties consistently registering less than 2% of the vote as well as those who campaigned intermittently.

Summary results

Elections Canada September 21, 2021, federal election results
↓
159 119 33 25 2
Liberal Conservative BQ NDP G

Full results

See also: Results of the 2021 Canadian federal election by riding
Pie chart of popular vote and seat counts

The Liberals maintained their status as largest party in the House of Commons. The results were very close to those of the 2019 federal election.[5]

edit Summary of the 2021 Canadian federal election
Party Party leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2019 Dissol. 2021 Change
from 2019 		% seats Votes Vote
change 		% pp change % where
running
Liberal Justin Trudeau 338[e] 157 155 159[f] Increase 2 47.04% 5,556,261
Conservative Erin O'Toole 337[g] 121 119 119 Decrease 2 35.21% 5,747,401
Bloc Québécois Yves-François Blanchet 78 32 32 33 Increase 1 9.76% 1,301,609
New Democratic Jagmeet Singh 338[h] 24 24 25 Increase 1 7.40% 3,036,730
Green Annamie Paul 252[i] 3 2 2 Decrease 1 0.59% 397,017
People's Maxime Bernier 312 – – – 841,015
Free Michel Leclerc 59 N/A – – 47,251 N/A N/A
Maverick Jay D. Hill (interim) 29 N/A – – 35,178 N/A N/A 2.30%
  Independent or No Affiliation 91 1 5 – Decrease 1 32,481 Decrease 41,810 0.69%
Christian Heritage Rodney L. Taylor 25 – – – 8,985 Decrease 9,916 0.05% Decrease 0.05pp 0.67%
Rhinoceros Sébastien CoRhino 27 – – – 6,085 Decrease 3,453 0.41%
Libertarian Jacques Boudreau 13 – – – 4,765 Decrease 3,602 0.03% Decrease 0.02pp 0.71%
Communist Elizabeth Rowley 26 – – – 4,700 Increase 795 0.03% Increase 0.01pp 0.36%
Marxist–Leninist Anna Di Carlo 36 – – – 4,532 Increase 408 0.26%
Parti pour l'Indépendance du Québec Michel Blondin 10 – – – 2,934 Decrease 881 0.02% Steady 0.51%
Animal Protection Liz White 10 – – – 2,546 Decrease 1,862 0.48%
Marijuana Blair T. Longley 9 – – – 2,031
Veterans Coalition Randy David Joy 7 – – – 1,246 Decrease 5,054 0.01% Decrease 0.02pp 0.30%
Centrist A.Q. Rana 4 N/A – – 648 N/A 0.00% N/A 0.40%
National Citizens Alliance Stephen J. Garvey 4 – – – 476 Decrease 34 0.00% Steady 0.22%
Parti Patriote Carl Brochu 2 N/A – – 244 N/A 0.00% N/A 0.21%
Canada's Fourth Front Partap Dua 2 – – – 105 Decrease 577 0.00% Steady 0.09%
Canadian Nationalist Gus Stefanis 1 – – – 52 Decrease 229 0.00% Steady 0.14%
  Vacant 1
Total valid votes 17,034,292 –
Total rejected ballots –
Total 2,010 338 338 338 – 100.00 100.00 – 100.00
Electorate/turnout 27,366,297 –
Source: House of Commons,[122] preliminary election results;[123] vote totals in italics are not yet fully validated and may change

Seats that changed hands

Elections to the 44th Parliament of Canada – seats won/lost by party, 2019–2021
Party 2019 Gain from (loss to) 2021
Lib Con NDP BQ Grn Ind
Liberal 157 7 (7) 2 (1) 1 (1) 1 159
Conservative 121 7 (7) (2) 119
New Democratic 24 (2) 2 1 25
Bloc Québécois 32 1 33
Green 3 1 (1) (1) 2
Independent 1 (1) –
Total 338 9 (11) 9 (7) 2 (3) – (1) 2 (1) 1 – 338

Below are the seats that changed allegiance from the 2019 election.

Of the 23 seats that changed hands, four were open seats where the MPs chose to retire, and one was where the MP crossed the floor in June and was re-elected under a new banner; the other 18 went down to defeat.

MPs defeated (2021)
Party Riding MP Position held First elected Defeated by Party
█ Conservative Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Leona Alleslev Deputy Leader of the Opposition (2019-2020) 2015 Leah Taylor Roy █ Liberal
█ Conservative Calgary Skyview Jag Sahota N/A 2019 George Chahal █ Liberal
█ Conservative Cloverdale—Langley City Tamara Jansen N/A 2019 John Aldag █ Liberal
█ Conservative Edmonton Centre James Cumming Critic for COVID-19 economic recovery 2019 Randy Boissonnault █ Liberal
█ Conservative Markham—Unionville Bob Saroya N/A 2015 Paul Chiang █ Liberal
█ Conservative Richmond Centre Alice Wong N/A 2008 Wilson Miao █ Liberal
█ Conservative Steveston—Richmond East Kenny Chiu N/A 2019 Parm Bains █ Liberal
█ Conservative Edmonton Griesbach Kerry Diotte N/A 2015 Blake Desjarlais █ New Democratic
█ Conservative Port Moody—Coquitlam Nelly Shin N/A 2019 Bonita Zarrillo █ New Democratic
█ Liberal Bay of Quinte Neil Ellis Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food (2019-2021) 2015 Ryan Williams █ Conservative
█ Liberal Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame Scott Simms Chair of the Standing Committee on Canadian Heritage 2015 Clifford Small █ Conservative
█ Liberal Cumberland—Colchester Lenore Zann N/A 2019 Stephen Ellis █ Conservative
█ Liberal King—Vaughan Deb Schulte Minister of Seniors 2015 Anna Roberts █ Conservative
█ Liberal Peterborough—Kawartha Maryam Monsef Minister for Women and Gender Equality
Minister of Rural Economic Development 		2015 Michelle Ferreri █ Conservative
█ Liberal South Shore—St. Margarets Bernadette Jordan Minister of Fisheries, Oceans, and the Canadian Coast Guard 2015 Rick Perkins █ Conservative
█ Liberal Châteauguay—Lacolle Brenda Shanahan N/A 2015 Patrick O'Hara █ Bloc Québécois
█ Liberal Kitchener Centre Raj Saini N/A 2015 Mike Morrice █ Green
█ Green Nanaimo—Ladysmith Paul Manly N/A 2019 Lisa Marie Barron █ New Democratic

The following table lists the seats that were open upon the incumbent MPs having chosen not to stand for re-election.

Open seats taken by candidates of other parties (2021)
Party Candidate Incumbent retiring from the House Riding Won by Party
█ Liberal Lisa Harris Pat Finnigan Miramichi—Grand Lake Jake Stewart █ Conservative
█ New Democratic Malcolm Allen Scott Duvall Hamilton Mountain Lisa Hepfner █ Liberal
█ New Democratic Mary Shortall Jack Harris St. John's East Joanne Thompson █ Liberal
█ Independent N/A Jody Wilson-Raybould Vancouver Granville Taleeb Noormohamed █ Liberal

Disavowed candidates

The following candidates were disavowed by their parties and/or voluntarily ceased campaigning after candidate registration closed, remaining on the ballot with their original party affiliation:

Candidate Electoral district Province or territory Date announced Reason Placed
  Raj Saini Kitchener Centre Ontario September 4, 2021 Ongoing sexual harassment allegations[124] 4th
  Lisa Robinson Beaches—East York Ontario September 10, 2021 Alleged Islamophobic tweet (2018)[125][k] 3rd
  Sidney Coles Toronto—St. Paul's Ontario September 15, 2021 Antisemitic tweets (2021)[126] 3rd
  Daniel Osborne Cumberland—Colchester Nova Scotia September 15, 2021 Antisemitic tweets (2019)[126] 3rd
  Kevin Vuong Spadina—Fort York Ontario September 17, 2021 Sexual assault charge (dropped in 2019)[127] 1st
  Michael Lariviere Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Ontario September 20, 2021 Unspecified; probably associating proof-of-vaccination systems with Nazism at election debate[128] 5th

MPs standing under a different political affiliation

Jenica Atwin, who was elected as the Green Party candidate in Fredericton in 2019, switched party affiliation to the Liberal Party in June 2021 and was re-elected as a Liberal. Two MPs elected in 2019 contested the election but left their party affililation blank when they registered; however, both failed to be re-elected.

Outgoing MP 2019 party 2019 riding 2021 affiliation 2021 riding Outcome
Jenica Atwin █ Green Fredericton █ Liberal Fredericton Won
Michel Boudrias █ Bloc Québécois Terrebonne █ No Affiliation Terrebonne Lost
Derek Sloan █ Conservative Hastings—Lennox and Addington █ No Affiliation Banff—Airdrie Lost

Maps

Elections Canada 2021 results
Map showing results by riding
Cartogram of the 2021 Canadian federal election results using equal-area ridings

Analysis and aftermath

The meagre results of the campaign have left their mark on the electorate. A survey by Maru Public Opinion revealed that 77% of respondents believe that Canada is more divided than ever, and 52% feel that Canada's democratic system is broken.[129]

Parties

Several factors were quickly identified as having had a significant influence on the results. Some political scientists and commentators debated whether the PPC's better performance, compared to the 2019 federal election, contributed to the Conservatives under Erin O'Toole losing to the Liberals. Mainstreet Research CEO Quito Maggi and University of Toronto political science professor Nelson Wiseman posited that the PPC may have cost the Conservatives at least ten ridings.[130][131][132] The votes obtained by PPC candidates were larger than the margin of victory in 21 ridings, where the Conservative candidate was in second place (12 in Ontario, five in BC, two in Alberta, one in Quebec and one in Newfoundland). Of those seats, 14 went to the Liberals, six to the NDP, and one to the Bloc; however, it has been described as not a simple generalization, as a significant amount of PPC support arose from non-Conservative voters.[133]

Unusual vote swings to the Liberals were also noted in ridings with significant Chinese-Canadian populations, with especially large ones arising in Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill and Richmond Centre.[134] This was uncovered early on in the campaign in polling by Mainstreet Research, which observed that they "were not supporting Conservative candidates in the same way they did in the last couple of elections."[134] While some commentators believed that this may have arisen because of the manner the Tories were handling China-Canada issues,[134] others wondered whether the abnormally large changes were due to disinformation activity occurring in the local Chinese-language media.[135][136]

Even before the mail-in ballots were counted, the Liberals were projected as leading in 158 seats despite seeing their vote share fall from 33.1% to 32.3%. Gerald Butts, former principal secretary to Trudeau, praised the result as a "smart campaign" that prioritized "vote efficiency"; this view was criticized as detracting from other essential aspects of an election campaign.[137] Other commentators questioned whether the Liberal vote has reached its effective limit, commenting that minority governments have occurred with greater frequency since the formation of the Conservative Party in 2003.[138]

O'Toole faces a mandatory leadership review at the next Conservative national conference in 2023, and a member of the national council has already called for a petition to accelerate the process.[139] Other Conservatives are urging continued support of O'Toole, and are calling for the party to unify around him.[140] Most party and caucus members appear to favour a post-mortem review along the lines conducted by the party after the 2004 federal election.[141]

The Green Party saw its share of the vote collapse to 2.3%, its lowest level since the 2000 federal election. Internal dissension and poor morale contributed to the decline, and Elizabeth May has called for an inquiry to determine the underlying reasons for it.[142] Paul announced her resignation as party leader on September 27.[143]

Candidates elected

Kevin Vuong, whose candidacy was disavowed by the Liberals after nominations had closed, still won the riding of Spadina-Fort York. Vuong has announced that he would take his seat as an independent upon being sworn in.[144] Adam Vaughan, the previous incumbent, has called on Vuong to resign as his victory was "compromised".[145]

The Conservatives fell 93 votes short of taking Trois-Rivières from the Bloc. They are considering whether to apply for a judicial recount, once the returning officer certifies the results.[146]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b Includes Kevin Vuong, who was on the ballot as a Liberal but was disavowed by the party during the campaign. He is not expected to be seated as a member of the Liberal caucus.
  2. ^ Annamie Paul lost the by-election in Toronto Centre the previous year and the 2019 general election.
  3. ^ Maxime Bernier was unseated in 2019.
  4. ^ a b c Previously elected under the Liberal banner
  5. ^ Includes Kitchener Centre candidate Raj Saini who withdrew, and Spadina—Fort York candidate Kevin Vuong who was removed as a candidate, both after the deadline for candidate registration, and thus remained on the ballot as Liberals.[115][116]
  6. ^ Includes Kevin Vuong, who was on the ballot as a Liberal and is still counted as a Liberal until sworn in. Vuong has announced that he will sit as an independent when parliament convenes.[117]
  7. ^ Includes Beaches—East York candidate Lisa Robinson, who was removed as a candidate after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as a Conservative.[118] The Conservatives did not run a candidate in Dartmouth—Cole Harbour after their nominee withdrew shortly before the registration deadline.[119]
  8. ^ Includes Toronto—St. Paul's candidate Sidney Coles and Cumberland—Colchester candidate Daniel Osborne, who both withdrew after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as New Democrats.[120]
  9. ^ Includes Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke candidate Michael Lariviere, who was removed as a candidate after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as a Green.[121]
  10. ^ The Green MP elected in 2019 defected to the Liberals months before the 2021 election.
  11. ^ Robinson claims the Twitter account was fake and reported to Durham police in 2018 after the tweet was made.

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