2024 Pakistani general election

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2024 Pakistani general election
← 2018 8 February 2024 2029 →
All 336 seats in the National Assembly
169 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered128,585,760
Turnout47.8%[1] (Decrease3.9pp)
 
Leader Imran Khan Nawaz Sharif Bilawal Bhutto Zardari
Party PTI-Ind.[a][2][3][4][5][6] PML(N) PPP
Last election 31.82%, 149 seats 24.35%, 82 seats 13.03%, 54 seats
Seats needed Decrease 24 Increase 87 Increase 115
Map of Pakistan with National Assembly constituencies
Incumbent Caretaker Prime Minister

Anwaar ul Haq Kakar
Independent



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General elections were held in Pakistan on 8 February 2024 to elect the members of the 16th National Assembly. The Election Commission of Pakistan announced the detailed schedule on 15 December 2023.

Polls were held amidst the allegations of pre-poll rigging and the election has been dubbed as the most rigged election in the history of Pakistan.[7][8][9] Foreign media, observer groups and members of the international community, including the United States, United Kingdom and European Union, have voiced their concerns about the fairness of the elections.

Independent candidates backed by the PTI won the most number of seats followed by the Pakistan Muslim League (N) and the Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians in the delayed elections following the two years of political crisis in the country after the PTI, led by Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted from government in 2022. The Military Establishment was accused of massive pre-poll rigging in favour of the PML-N's leader Nawaz Sharif.[10] The PTI was forced to field its candidates as Independents after a controversial Supreme Court ruling stripped them of their electoral symbol in the run-up to the elections; Khan was also barred from politics for five years following convictions.[11][12] The PTI also claimed widespread military interference in the election.[13][14]

At a press conference on 13 February 2024, it was announced by the leaders of the PML-N and the PPP that they would form a coalition government with Shehbaz Sharif as prime minister.[15] The Muttahida Qaumi Movement – Pakistan, the Pakistan Muslim League (Q), the Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party and the Balochistan Awami Party also expressed their intent to join the governmental coalition.[16]

Background

2018 elections

Further information: 2018 Pakistani general election

General elections were held in Pakistan on 25 July 2018 after the completion of a five-year term by the outgoing government. At the national level, elections were held in 272 constituencies, each electing one member to the National Assembly. At the provincial level, elections were held in each of the four provinces to elect Members of the Provincial Assemblies (MPA).[17]

As a result of the elections, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) became the single largest party at the national level in terms of both popular vote and seats. At the provincial level, the PTI remained the largest party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP); the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) remained the largest party in Sindh and the newly-formed Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) became the largest party in Balochistan. In Punjab, a hung parliament prevailed with Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) emerging as the largest party in terms of directly elected seats by a narrow margin.[18] However, following the support of Pakistan Muslim League (Q) and the joining of independent MPAs into the PTI, the latter became the largest party and was able to form the government.[19]

2022 constitutional crisis

Main articles: 2022 Pakistani constitutional crisis, No-confidence motion against Imran Khan, and Lettergate

On 8 March 2022, the opposition parties, under the banner of Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), submitted a motion of no confidence against Prime Minister Imran Khan to the National Assembly's secretariat.[20][21] On 27 March 2022, Khan waved a diplomatic cypher from US in the public,[22] claiming that it demanded the removal of Khan's government in a coup.[23] Later he changed his stance about the US conspiracy against his government, in an effort to mend ties with the country.[24][25] However, in August 2023, The Intercept claimed to have published the contents of the diplomatic cable which had American diplomat Donald Lu on record as stating that "all will be forgiven" concerning the country's neutrality in the Ukraine conflict, if the no-confidence motion against Khan were to succeed.[26] After the election, JUI-F president Fazal-ur-Rehman, a critic of Imran Khan, claimed that the motion of no-confidence to remove Khan was introduced on the instructions of former army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa.[27][28]

On 1 April 2022, Prime Minister Khan announced that in the context of the no-confidence motion against him in the National Assembly, the three options were discussed with "establishment" to choose from viz: "resignation, no-confidence [vote] or elections".[29] On 3 April 2022, President Arif Alvi dissolved the National Assembly of Pakistan on Khan's advice after the Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly rejected and set-aside the motion of no confidence; this move would have required elections to the National Assembly to be held within 90 days.[30][31] On 10 April, after a Supreme Court ruling that the no-confidence motion was illegally rejected, a no-confidence vote was conducted and he was ousted from office,[32][33] becoming the first prime minister in Pakistan to be removed from office by a vote of no confidence.[34][35][36] Khan claimed the US was behind his removal because he conducted an independent foreign policy and had friendly relations with China and Russia. His removal led to protests from his supporters across Pakistan.[37][38][39]

PDM government

After the success of the no-confidence motion, on 11 April 2022, Shehbaz Sharif became the Prime Minister after receiving 174 votes out of a total of 342, two more than the required majority with the support of Pakistan People's Party, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam and various smaller parties under the coalition of Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM). Dissident members of PTI also supported his candidature. Meanwhile, the remaining PTI members, who were now in the opposition, boycotted the session terming it a continuation of a "foreign conspiracy".[40] A day later, over 100 PTI members tendered resignations from their National Assembly seats.[41]

The PDM government remained in power until 10 August 2023. Sharif's tenure was marked by historically high inflation, contraction of the national economy, and a record devaluation of the Pakistani rupee.[42][43][44]

Assassination attempt on Imran Khan and his subsequent arrest

Main articles: Attempted assassination of Imran Khan, 2023 Zaman Park raid, Arrest of Imran Khan, and May 9 riots

Following its ouster from the government, PTI continued to enjoy mass popularity with its supporters taking to the streets across the country.[45] In July 2022, during a provincial by-election in Punjab, the party had a landslide victory after winning 15 of the 20 seats. During October 2022 by-elections conducted for the National Assembly, the party won 7 out of 9 seats with Khan winning 6 of the 7 seats he was contesting for.[46] Later in the year, Khan himself led a well-attended march of protest throughout the populous province of Punjab, to force an early general election.[47] However on 3 November 2022, while he was leading the march through Wazirabad, he was shot at and injured in an attempted assassination.[48]

As Khan was recovering from the gunshot wounds to his leg, the government registered several cases against him and attempted to arrest him from his home in Zaman Park on two different occasions during March 2023. Each time the police were unable to arrest him as his supporters intervened.[49] Then on 9 May 2023, he was violently arrested by paramilitary forces while marking his attendance at Islamabad High Court in a corruption case. The arrest came a day after the country's army warned him for accusing a high-ranking member of the ISI, Major General Faisal Naseer, of being responsible for the assassination attempt in November 2022.[50] Nationwide violence followed, in what were termed as May 9 riots, with some demonstrators targeting military installations.[51] Following the events, a crackdown was initiated against the party by the country's military establishment. PTI's leaders, party workers, and supporters, as well as those perceived to be allied to the party's cause within the media and legal fraternity, were targeted.[52][53] Trials of civilians within military courts were also initiated.[54] Several core leaders of the party have been in hiding since, with many incarcerated or forced to abandon the party.[52] Subsequently, two pro-establishment splinter groups emerged from within PTI, PTI Parliamentarians (PTI-P), led by Pervez Khattak, and Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP), led by Jahangir Tareen.[55][56]

Schedule controversies

In January 2023, in a bid to force early general elections, PTI prematurely dissolved the provincial assemblies it was in power in – namely Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. According to the constitution of Pakistan, after the dissolution of an assembly, elections are supposed to be held there within 90 days, thus, constitutionally limiting the date for the two provincial elections to be no later than April 2023.[57][58] However, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) delayed the elections to October 2023, citing lack of funds provided by the PDM government and the unavailability of the required security personnel.[59][60] PTI approached the Supreme Court of Pakistan against the electoral body's decision, terming it a violation of the constitution, and with a majority verdict the court declared the ECP's earlier ruling as unconstitutional and ordered it to hold elections by 14 May 2023.[61] After the nationwide May 9 riots that broke out following Imran Khan’s arrest – the election date passed without the Supreme Court order being enforced. On 30 May, after the passage of a new law, the PDM government filed a review petition against the court's earlier ruling.[62]

On 10 August 2023, the National Assembly was prematurely dissolved by the President Arif Alvi on the advice of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. This meant that the election must be held no later than 8 November 2023.[63][64] However, on 5 August 2023, the results of the 2023 digital census were approved by the Council of Common Interests headed by Shehbaz Sharif.[65] Therefore, elections were to be delayed to February 2024 at the latest, as announced by the Election Commission of Pakistan in order to carry out fresh electoral delimitations in light of the approved census results.[66][67] Despite that, on 13 September 2023, President Alvi proposed 6 November 2023 as a date to the ECP and advised it to seek guidance from the Supreme Court for the announcement of the election date.[68] On 2 November 2023, the ECP and the President agreed on 8 February 2024 as the date for the general election.[69][70]

Return of Nawaz Sharif to electoral politics

At the start of May 2023, the PDM government adopted a law that allows for the filing of review petitions against prior Supreme Court verdicts.[71] At the end of June, another law, limiting disqualification to five years, was adopted. It also allows the electoral commission to announce the date of an election without consulting the President of the country.[72]

After serving 12 months of his 7-year sentence on corruption charges, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif left the country on 19 November 2019 to receive medical treatment in London, promising to return in 4 weeks.[73] He was declared a fugitive in 2021 after failing to appear before courts despite summons.[74] Sharif obtained protective bail on 19 October 2023, which allowed him to return from 4 years of self-imposed exile without being arrested.[75] On October 21, he returned to the country where he was welcomed in Lahore by a gathering of tens of thousands of his supporters.[76]

On 9 January 2024, a seven-member Supreme Court bench under Chief Justice Qazi Faez Isa, hearing a review petition against lifetime disqualification, announced a 6–1 majority verdict with Justice Yahya Afridi dissenting. The verdict set aside the earlier Supreme Court interpretation of lifetime disqualification for article 62(1)(f) of the constitution, stating that it violated fundamental rights, and instead set a five-year disqualification following the newly passed laws for lawmakers who fail the moral standard of "sadiq and ameen" (honest and righteous).[77] The timing of the verdict ensured that Sharif, who was disqualified for life in the Panama Papers case in 2017, is eligible to contest these elections with a possible fourth term as prime minister.[78]

Campaign

PTI de facto ban through intra-party election verdict

Main article: PTI intra-party elections case

On 22 December 2023, the ECP decided against allowing the PTI to keep its electoral symbol, asserting that the party had failed to conduct intra-party elections to the Commission's satisfaction. Subsequently, on the same day, the PTI appealed to the Peshawar High Court (PHC) challenging the ECP's decision. Consequently, a single-member bench suspended the ECP's order until 9 January 2024. On 30 December 2023, the ECP submitted a review application to the PHC. In the following days, a two-member bench lifted the suspension order while hearing the case. However, on 10 January 2024, the two-member bench deemed the ECP's order "illegal, without any lawful authority, and of no legal effect." Responding to this, on 11 January, the ECP contested the ruling in the Supreme Court.[79]

On 13 January, a three-member panel of the Supreme Court, headed by Chief Justice Faez Isa, sided with the ECP, reinstating their initial decision to deny the PTI its election symbol, the cricket bat, due to the party's failure to conduct intra-party elections by its constitution. Consequently, the PTI was unable to allocate party tickets to any of its candidates, resulting in all party candidates being listed as independent candidates with individual electoral symbols.[80] The party also lost the right to nominate candidates for 226 reserved seats across the central and provincial legislatures.[81] Removing the cricket bat symbol was viewed as preventing voters from recognizing the party on ballot papers—a crucial factor in Pakistan where 40 per cent of the population is illiterate.[82]

The Supreme Court's decision led some legal experts to describe the ruling as a "huge blow to fundamental rights" and "a defeat for democratic norms."[83]

Imran Khan's convictions

Further information: Legal affairs of Imran Khan

In the week before the elections, Imran Khan was sentenced to jail terms in three separate cases. On 30 January 2024, with the government seeking a death penalty, he was sentenced to 10 years in a case dealing with the handling of state secrets by Judge Abul Hasnat Zulqarnain.[84] A day later, Judge Muhammad Bashir, sentenced him and his wife, Bushra Bibi, to a jail term of 14 years, along with a fine of Rs. 787 million (US$2.7 million) each for retaining a jewellery set that was a state gift from Saudi Arabia against an undervalued assessment from the country's Toshakhana. The ruling also barred Khan from holding public office for 10 years.[85] Two days later, Judge Qudratullah declared the marriage of Khan and his wife against Islamic law and sentenced both to prison for a term of seven years for allegedly solemnizing their marriage during Bushra's Iddah period. The case was lodged on the complaint of Khawar Maneka, Bushra's former husband, five years after her marriage to Khan.[86]

All three trials were held behind closed doors in Adiala Jail, where Khan has been incarcerated since August 2023 on corruption charges, and were marked with rushed proceedings, sudden replacement of defendant's lawyers with state consuls, and other procedural irregularities that led his party to term the decisions to be coming from "kangaroo courts".[87][88][89] Khan's sentencing in the marriage case was decried by lawyers and members of the civil society as an overreach and a blow to women's rights.[90][91][92] Meanwhile, some observers termed the sentencings as a continuation of the Pakistani military's engineering to keep Khan out of power in the upcoming elections.[93][94][95] On election day, a PTI official said Khan had been allowed to vote in prison using a postal ballot.[96]

Allegations of pre-poll rigging

Some observers, including the United Nations and Human Rights Watch, have pointed to what appears to be pre-poll rigging in the run-up to the upcoming elections. There have been notable actions against the PTI and its leaders, including snatching of nomination papers, arbitrary arrests of candidates and their supporters, systematic rejection of nomination papers, and disruption of campaign events. This situation has led to widespread allegations of 'election engineering' and manipulative practices that could potentially favour certain political groups, casting doubts over the fairness of the electoral process.[97][94][98][99] Pakistan’s electoral commission was also accused of gerrymandering in favour of the PML-N during the redrawing of voter maps before the elections, with a record 1,300 complaints made.[100]

Many candidates affiliated with the PTI complained that following the ban on the usage of the cricket bat as the party’s logo for the ballots, the electoral commission provided them with symbols carrying obscure meanings and sometimes awkward connotations such as a calculator, an electric heater, a dice, a bed, an eggplant, which is deemed anatomically suggestive, and a bottle, which carries suggestions of alcohol consumption in the majority-Muslim country.[101][102] This forces some of them to highlight their assigned symbols to voters, particularly those living in rural areas, on TikTok.[103]

Numerous PTI candidates were reportedly beaten and imprisoned, while many were compelled to join opposing parties, or quit politics entirely. A strict order was given to stop mentioning Khan's name on television and PTI protests were suppressed, while PTI supporters were arrested and harassed[82] by the military, judiciary as well other political parties.[104][7]

Censorship

Further information: Internet censorship in Pakistan

On 26 January 2024, PTI's official website, insaf.pk, and a separate website made for disseminating information regarding the individual electoral symbols of the party's candidates were blocked in Pakistan.[105] A voter helpline created by the party was also blocked.[106] Previously, social media was blocked in the country during the party's virtual electoral events on at least three separate occasions as per internet watchdog, NetBlocks.[107][108]

Journalists covering the elections reported a 'near-blanket ban' on their ability to cover PTI candidates fairly. News channels allegedly received messages from individuals belonging to Pakistan's military establishment instructing them to remove all references to PTI in their visuals, graphics, and talking points.[109]

Election day violence and disruptions

Widespread internet disruption, with complete closure of mobile phone networks, was observed and condemned by Amnesty International as a blunt attack on the rights to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly.[110] Several polling stations faced instances of violence, ballot box snatching, vandalism and gunfire.[111][112][113]

Electoral system

The 336 members of the National Assembly consist of 266 general seats elected by first-past-the-post voting in single-member constituencies,[114] 60 seats that are reserved for women elected by proportional representation based on the number of general seats won by each party in each province, and ten seats that are reserved for non-Muslims elected through proportional representation based on the number of overall general seats won by each party. Independents cannot claim reserved seats.[115][116]

The government had passed a bill that required the next general elections to be held using EVMs (electronic voting machines). This was aimed at ending the allegations of rigging that have plagued previous elections in Pakistan. Still, the opposition's opinion was that it would make it extremely easy for PTI to rig the elections in their favour through security loopholes.[117]

In 2022 when the PTI-led government was ousted through a successful vote of no-confidence in the National Assembly, the 11 opposition parties, some of them being long-time rivals, formed a new government and passed the Elections Amendment Bill, which nullified the use of EVMs in the next general elections. Hence, EVMs were not used in the current general elections. Instead paper ballots were once again employed during the elections.[citation needed]

Voting and transmission of results

Registered voters in each polling station of an electoral district get two paper ballots to put a stamp on their preferred candidate for the national and provincial assembly respectively. These ballots are then counted by a presiding officer who then transmits the results for their polling station to the returning officer (RO) in Form 45. Copies of Form 45 are also given to the observing polling agents of the contesting candidates. The RO then consolidates these Form 45s, in front of the contesting candidates of the constituency they are overseeing, to give a provisional result in Form 47. The ECP then uses the data from Form 47 to officially notify elected members for each constituency using Form 49, provided that no candidate contested the unofficial counts given in Form 47.[118]

Timeline

In July 2023 the ECP invited political parties to submit applications for the allocation of electoral symbols,[119] given that about 40% of the Pakistani population is illiterate.[120]

As of 25 July 2023, the total number of registered voters in Pakistan stood around 127 million as compared to 106 million (including 59.22 million men and 46.73 million women voters) in 2018, according to the data released by the ECP.[121] According to the figures, the number of eligible female voters stood at 58.5 million (around 46 per cent of the total registered voters) while the number of eligible male voters was 68.5 million (about 54 per cent of the total voters).[122]

In late September the ECP announced that citizens over 18 can update their voter details until 25 October 2023. The ECP decided to "unfreeze" the electoral rolls to allow registered voters to rectify or update their details.[123]

On 2 November 2023, President Arif Alvi and the ECP agreed on holding general elections on 8 February, after a meeting was held in Aiwan-i-Sadr on the orders of the Supreme Court. The court had instructed the ECP to consult with the President on the poll date.[124]

On 15 December 2023, the ECP issued the election schedule. It set 22 December as the last date for filing nomination papers.[125] On that day however, the ECP extended the deadline for the submission of nomination papers to 24 December.[126] More than 5,000 people were officially recognized as candidates for the 266 directly-elected seats in the National Assembly, with only 313 of them being women.[120]

Parties

Further information: List of political parties in Pakistan

The table below lists each party that either received a share of the vote higher than 0.5% in the 2018 Pakistan general election or had representation in the 15th National Assembly of Pakistan. Political parties are ordered by their vote share in the 2018 elections. Independent candidates received 11.46% of the vote and 13 national assembly seats (both general seats and total seats in the 15th National Assembly, as reserved seats for women and minorities, are given to political parties) in 2018.[citation needed]

Name Flag Claimed
ideology(ies) 		Leader Voteshare
in 2018 		General seats won in 2018 Seats before election
PTI Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf[a]
پاکستان تحريکِ انصاف 		Populism
Islamic democracy
Welfarism
Civic nationalism 		Imran Khan 31.82%
116 / 272
149 / 342
PML(N) Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)
پاکستان مسلم لیگ (نواز) 		Conservatism
Economic liberalism
Federalism 		Nawaz Sharif 24.35%
64 / 272
82 / 342
PPP Pakistan People's Party
پاکستان پیپلز پارٹی 		Social democracy
Islamic democracy
Progressivism
Third Way 		Bilawal Bhutto Zardari 13.03%
43 / 272
58 / 342
JUI-F Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazl)
جمیعت علماءِ اسلام (ف) 		Islamism
Conservatism 		Fazl-ur-Rahman 4.85%
11 / 272
14 / 342
JI Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan
جماعت اسلامی پاکستان 		Islamism
Islamic revivalism
Social conservatism 		Siraj-ul-Haq
1 / 272
1 / 342
MQM(P) Muttahida Qaumi Movement – Pakistan
متحدہ قومی موومنٹ(پاکستان) 		Liberalism
Social liberalism
Social democracy
Muhajir nationalism
Secularism 		Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui 1.38%
6 / 272
7 / 342
TLP Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan
تحریک لبیک پاکستان 		Islamism
Far-Right 		Saad Hussain Rizvi 4.21%
0 / 272
0 / 342
AML Awami Muslim League Pakistan
عوامی مسلم لیگ پاکستان 		Islamism[citation needed]
Populism 		Shaikh Rasheed Ahmad 0.22%
1 / 272
1 / 342
JWP Jamhoori Wattan Party
جمہوری وطن پارٹی 		Baloch nationalism Shahzain Bugti 0.04%
1 / 272
1 / 342
MQM-London Muttahida Qaumi Movement – London[b]
متحدہ قومی موومنٹ 		Social Liberalism
Secularism
Muhajir Nationalism 		Altaf Hussain 0%
0 / 272
0 / 342
MQM-H Mohajir Qaumi Movement Pakistan
مہاجر قومی موومنٹ پاکستان 		Liberal Socialism
Secularism
Muhajir Nationalism 		Afaq Ahmed 0%
0 / 272
0 / 342
GDA Grand Democratic Alliance
گرینڈ ڈیموکریٹک الائنس 		Regionalism
Opposition to the PPP[127] 		Pir of Pagaro VIII 2.37%
2 / 272
3 / 342
ANP Awami National Party
عوامی نيشنل پارٹی 		Pashtun nationalism
Democratic socialism
Secularism 		Asfandyar Wali Khan 1.54%
1 / 272
1 / 342
MWM Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen
مجلس وحدتِ مسلمین 		Islamic Socialism
Shia-Sunni Unity
Islamic Democracy 		Allama Raja Nasir Abbas 0%
0 / 272
0 / 342
PML(Q) Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid e Azam)
پاکستان مسلم لیگ(قائد اعظم) 		Conservatism
Pakistani nationalism 		Shujaat Hussain 0.97%
4 / 272
5 / 342
BAP Balochistan Awami Party
بلوچستان عوامی پارٹی 		Federalism
Islamic democracy 		Khalid Hussain Magsi 0.60%
4 / 272
5 / 342
BNP(M) Balochistan National Party (Mengal)
بلوچستان نيشنل پارٹی(مینگل) 		Baloch nationalism
Democratic socialism
Secularism 		Akhtar Mengal 0.45%
3 / 272
4 / 342
PML(Z) Pakistan Muslim League (Z)
پاکستان مسلم لیگ (ض) 		Islamism
Populism
Reformism 		Ijaz-ul-Haq
0 / 272
0 / 342

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2024 Pakistani general election

In August 2023, the ECP imposed a total ban on entrance and exit polls including those on official digital media accounts of electronic and print media outlets.[128] Before the ban, opinion polling in June 2023 by Gallup Pakistan, the Institute of Public Opinion Research (IPOR) and IRIS showed that the PML-N had regained its lead over the PTI especially in the country's largest province, Punjab.[citation needed]

Last date
of polling 		Polling firm Link PTI PML(N) PPP MMA[c] TLP Other Ind. Lead Margin
of error 		Sample
size 		Undecideds &
Non-voters[d]
30 June 2023 Gallup Pakistan PDF 42% 20% 12% 4% 4% 5% 22% ±2.5% 3,500 13%
3 June 2022 IPOR (IRI) PDF 39% 33% 12% 7% 4% 5% 6% ±2 – 3% 2,003 25%
21 March 2022 IPOR (IRI) PDF 35% 33% 19% 6% 4% 3% 2% ±2 – 3% 3,509 16%
31 January 2022 Gallup Pakistan PDF 34% 33% 15% 6% 3% 9% 1% ±3 – 5% 5,688 33%
9 January 2022 IPOR (IRI) PDF 31% 33% 17% 3% 3% 11% 1% 2% ±2 – 3% 3,769 11%
11 November 2020 IPOR (IRI) PDF 36% 38% 13% 4% 3% 6% 2% ±3.22% 2,003 32%
13 August 2020 IPOR (IRI) PDF 33% 38% 15% 3% 3% 8% 5% ±2.95% 2,024 26%
30 June 2020 IPOR (IRI) PDF 24% 27% 11% 3% 2% 33% 3% ±2.38% 1,702 N/A[e]
24 June 2019 Gallup Pakistan PDF 31% 28% 15% 5% 21% 3% ±3 – 5% ~1,400 N/A
22 November 2018 IPOR (IRI) PDF 43% 27% 15% 1% 1% 11% 1% 16% ±2.05% 3,991 22%
25 July 2018 2018 Elections ECP 31.8% 24.3% 13.0% 4.8% 4.2% 10.3% 11.5% 7.5% N/A 53,123,733 N/A

Security concerns and violence

The ECP categorised half the country’s 90,675 polling stations as either "sensitive", meaning there is a risk of violence, or "most sensitive", indicating a higher risk. The classifications were based on the area’s security situation and history of electoral violence.[129] In Balochistan Province alone, caretaker provincial home minister Muhammad Zubair Jamali said that almost 80% of its 5,028 polling stations had been declared "sensitive".[130]

Pre-poll violence

On 25 January 2024, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan pledged not to stage attacks on election rallies and would limit itself to attacking military and police targets during the election period. This followed the government's decision to deploy troops in sensitive constituencies after intelligence agencies warned that militants could target rallies.[131]

Two candidates were killed during the election campaign. On 10 January, Malik Kaleem Ullah, an independent candidate for the Provincial Assembly of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, was shot dead while on a door-to-door sortie, while on 31 January, Rehan Zaib Khan, an independent candidate affiliated with the PTI, was killed after gunmen opened fire on his car in a market in Bajaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, in an attack that also injured three people and was claimed by the Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISIS-K). On 30 January, four people were killed and five others injured in an explosion during a PTI rally in Sibi, Balochistan Province, while on 31 January, 15 people were injured in attacks on residences and offices of PPP candidates and the election office of the PML-N in Balochistan, which was partially claimed by the Baloch Liberation Army.[132] On 7 February, 29 people were killed in explosions outside an independent candidate's office and an office of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F) (JUI-F) in Balochistan.[133] Both attacks were claimed by ISIS-K.[134]

Incidents on election day

The Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the closure of its borders with Iran and Afghanistan on the eve of the general elections on 8 February, as a measure to enhance security.[135][136]

Ten minutes before polling stations opened, the interior ministry announced the suspension of mobile internet services across the country, citing recent terrorist incidents.[120] NetBlocks director Alp Toker called the outage "amongst the largest" that they had observed. PPP leader Bilawal Bhutto Zardari demanded that the government restore services and said its lawyers would challenge the decision in court.[137] The PTI called the outage a "cowardly act".[102]

In Balochistan, grenades were thrown at two polling stations by unidentified individuals. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a soldier was killed in an attack by gunmen in Kot Azam,[138] while five security personnel were killed in an attack in Kulachi. A polling station in the same province was shelled by mortars. Two security officers were killed and nine wounded by an explosion near a polling station in Lajja, Balochistan, while two people were injured following 14 "minor blasts" in Gwadar.[96]

Post-election violence

On 9 February, two PTI workers were killed and 24 others were injured after clashes broke out between police and PTI supporters demonstrating against alleged electoral fraud in Shangla District, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.[139][140] On 10 February, Mohsin Dawar, the leader of the National Democratic Movement who was running for a national assembly seat in North Waziristan, was seriously injured in a gun attack in Miranshah.[141] On 11 February, six people, including a police officer, were killed and five others were injured in election-related clashes in Larkana.[142] On 12 February, Chaudhry Muhammad Adnan, a former PTI member of the Punjab Assembly and Independent candidate for the NA-57 Rawalpindi-VI and PP-19 Rawalpindi-XIII constituencies in Punjab, was shot dead in Rawalpindi.[143] On 13 February, three people were killed and five others were injured in a gun attack on a PPP victory rally in Dera Ismail Khan.[144] On 14 February, two people were killed and 13 others were injured in clashes between BAP and PPP supporters during a recount outside the office of the returning officer in Hub, Balochistan.[145]

Results

See also: List of members of the 16th National Assembly of Pakistan

Provisional results by party

The election was postponed in the NA-8 Bajaur constituency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa due to the killing of candidate Rehan Zaib Khan. Provincial assembly elections were also postponed in the constituencies of PK-22 and PK-91 (both in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) due to the deaths of candidates there.[146]

PartySeats
General
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf-Backed Independents93
Pakistan Muslim League (N)75
Pakistan People's Party54
Muttahida Qaumi Movement – Pakistan17
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F)4
Pakistan Muslim League (Q)3
Balochistan National Party (Mengal)2
Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party2
Awami National Party1
Balochistan Awami Party1
Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen1
Pakistan Muslim League (Z)1
Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party1
Pashtunkhwa National Awami Party Pakistan1
Grand Democratic Alliance0
Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan0
Jamhoori Wattan Party0
Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan0
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Parliamentarians0
Pakistan Markazi Muslim League0
Pakistan Rah-e-Haq Party0
Sunni Tehreek0
Sunni Ittehad Council0
Pakistan Awami Tehreek0
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (S)0
Islami Tehreek Pakistan0
Wafa Parast0
Other parties0
Independents8
Vacant2
Total266
Source: ECP, BBC

Allegations of rigging

Unofficial initial results showed PTI-backed Independents leading in 148 constituencies, with the PML-N leading in 43, and the PPP leading in 47. Others led in 27 seats.[147][148] However, the ECP issued a statement clarifying that media reports on election results sourced from the Commission sources were inaccurate, emphasizing that no official results had been released.[149] PTI officials claimed that the official results were being tampered with, with cumulative polling stations' results of their candidates not tallying with the provisional final counts being issued by result officers.[150][151][152][153] Several PTI-backed candidates from three of Pakistan's four provinces, as well as Islamabad, challenged these allegedly doctored final counts in the courts.[154][155][156][157]

Despite assurances that official results would be released early on 9 February, the ECP only started releasing results more than 15 hours after polls closed, at noon on that day, citing complications brought about by the internet outage on election day.[158] The ECP had earlier assured that their system will not be affected by any kind of internet outage, and can work offline.[159] The Ministry of Interior cited communication challenges for the delay in election result compilation, attributing it to security precautions. These measures, aimed at ensuring the safety of personnel and ballots, led to the extended processing time. However, the Ministry assured that the situation was now under control and expected the results to follow suit.[160]

However, despite the restoration of mobile signals in the early hours of 9 February, the results still faced delays.[161] The declaration of provisional results was not done until the late hours of 10 February, more than two days after the vote count had started.[162] PTI supporters suspected that the shutdown of the mobile network was an attempt to disrupt the party's efforts to rally voters and document electoral fraud.[103]

The Economist called the delay in announcing the election results unusual, even by Pakistan's standards, saying that signs of tampering were "plentiful."[163]

Salman Akram Raja, a PTI leader and candidate was quoted in The Guardian saying that he has pursued legal action, referring to the military's involvement by stating, "They decided to rewrite the results."[14] The PTI claimed that the results of at least 18 National Assembly seats were "falsely changed" by election officers, while at least six of its losing affiliated candidates launched legal appeals questioning the results, including Yasmin Rashid, who lost to Nawaz Sharif in a Lahore constituency.[164]

Jan Muhammad Buledi, a former spokesperson of the Balochistan provincial government and secretary general of the National Party was quoted in The Guardian as saying that he received a direct death threat from an army colonel after he publicly accused the military of stuffing the ballot boxes with fake votes in the constituency where he was a candidate.[14]

Awami National Party provincial president for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Aimal Wali Khan in a press conference rejected the results of the elections, claiming they were already decided before voting began. He admitted their past cooperation with the establishment was a mistake and vowed not to work with them anymore. He also accused the military of using the country's resources for their benefit.[165]

On 13 February, PTI chair Gohar Ali Khan announced the publication of a white paper on the discrepancy between the polling stations' issued Form 45 overall results and the ECP's constituency-level account, Form- 47, supposedly based on the former. He alleged a total of 180 national assembly seats, equivalent to 68% of the directly elected ones, and over two-thirds of seats in the Punjab Provincial Assembly were won by the PTI and, therefore liable to be recovered through the Provincial High Courts. He reiterated demands for the immediate resignation of the ECP’s Chief Commissioner, Sikandar Sultan Raja. According to PTI spokesmen, of the 180 national assembly seats claimed by PTI affiliates, the latter won 115 seats in Punjab, 42 seats in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 16 seats in Sindh, four seats in Balochistan, and all three seats in Islamabad Federal District. It also said that out of the PML-N's 75 national assembly seats supposedly won, 58 seats were fraudulently declared on the ECP's Form-47 and only 17 seats were compatible with the polling stations' electoral records. Similarly, out of 131 Punjab Provincial Assembly seats that the PML-N allegedly won, the declarations of between 91 and 101 seats were also counterfeited on ECP's supplied Form-47 and only 30 to 40 were found to be congruent with the Form-45 polling stations' door affidavits. Furthermore, in Karachi alone, 90% of national assembly seats won by the PTI with large margins on Form-45 had been diverted towards minor candidates.[166][167][168][169][170][171]

On 13 February, Hafiz Naeem ur Rehman, who won election to the Sindh Assembly representing the PS-129 Karachi Central-VIII constituency on behalf of the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) party relinquished his seat, saying that it was a PTI-affiliate who had won and calling his position a "charity seat".[172]

International analysis

See also: Electoral fraud in Pakistan

The New York Times wrote the election results had caught many off guard, as the PML-N was widely anticipated to secure a landslide victory with the backing of the military. The report noted that voters expressed frustration with the military's interference in politics and opted to vote for PTI candidates in defiance of the military generals.[173] It went on to say the election results had humiliated the military establishment and started a new political crisis in the country.[174] Another article by the same newspaper said that the growing public discontent with military interference in politics is likely to pressure Pakistan's army chief General Asim Munir, with his only options being to reconcile with Imran Khan or push forward with an anti-Khan coalition, which many analysts believe would be weak and unsustainable.[175]

The Washington Post in its editorial board wrote following the election outcome, the military's control is being questioned more than ever before, possibly in decades as for the first time, the military-prefered candidate, Nawaz Sharif, was unable to win the most seats.[7] In a separate piece, it wrote that the youth of Pakistan caused the most significant election upset in the country's recent history saying that the youth is increasingly discontented with economic uncertainty and blame corruption and political dynasties. This dissatisfaction is now being expressed more openly on social media, potentially straining the relationship between civilian leaders and the military which will have long-lasting effects.[103] It also wrote that the election results were a humiliation for Sharif, despite being seen as the favoured candidate of the Pakistani military, which had held significant influence in determining the prime minister.[176]

France 24 called the election "The ‘generals’ elections’ which turned against the military". It also dubbed the election as the “most rigged” in the country’s history saying the military was seen as backing Nawaz Sharif.[177] According to TIME, the Pakistani military did everything to "sideline Imran Khan—and failed," but said that the military was continuing to try and prevent the PTI from returning to power[178] calling the election result as an embarrassment for Sharif.[179]

Ryan Grim in an article published by The Intercept said that the historic turnout in Pakistan was swamping the military's effort to rig the election and that the military has proved unable to suppress the populist movement interrogating its authority.[180] The Economist called the election "botched", but wrote that the military favors the "shabby" result, fearing that it would lose its own economic benefits shout it give up power.[181] It also suggested that the despite their efforts, the military leadership did not seem to have as much control as they believed to prevent Khan from winning.[182] It also said the election outcome was a strong message to the military and could potentially mark a shift in its influence over Pakistani politics, while adding that a prolonged period of political instability could occur in the short-term. It called the electoral process "dubious" which was preceded by a coordinated campaign by the military against Imran Khan.[163]

The Guardian noted that suspicions of military rigging arose during election day due to a nationwide mobile phone blackout and the slow counting of results, leading to concerns that the military was exerting influence to secure the PML-N's success.[183] It added that the military's attempts to influence the election appeared to have been thwarted, particularly due to the PTI's effective utilization of social media, given the significant levels of illiteracy in the country.[184] In a separate article, The Guardian noted analysts' views that the election results and potential weak coalition government align with the military's interests, protecting their political and business agendas.[13]

The Financial Times in its editorial called the election results "flawed" and "shocking", at the same time describing it as a rejection of military influence.[104] Pakistani columnist Khurram Husain was quoted in a separate piece in the newspaper as saying that Pakistan will experience not only the influence of the military but also a collaborative endeavour involving the judiciary and major political parties to thwart the PTI from assuming power.[185]

The New York Post, referencing the New York Times article, stated that this election marks the initial instance in Pakistan's history where a party has achieved such success without the support of the military and this will spark a new political chaos in the country.[186] According to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation the election results did not unfold as per the military's expectations and had shaken the elite. Hasan Askari Rizvi was quoted as saying, "This is a negative vote for the policies that the military was pursuing.".[187]

Sameer Arshad Khatlani in an opinion piece for the Dhaka Tribune wrote "Election results seem to be blowing up in the military establishment’s face which attempted to make Imran Khan irrelevant by jailing him, cracking down PTI".[188] Lipika Pelham wrote for the BBC saying despite PTI-backed independents winning the majority of seats in parliament, they were unlikely to be permitted to form a government.[189]

During an interview with The Wire, Najam Sethi remarked that Imran Khan and the PTI had strongly resisted the influence of the military, which led to the latter resorting to last-minute rigging efforts.[190] Firstpost wrote that the Pakistani military had experienced a setback, at least temporarily, with public sentiment turning against it. It also noted that allegations of electoral fraud by the military put Western countries in a difficult position, given their historic support of the military to ensure the security of the country's nuclear arsenal.[191] It added that "General Asim Munir's tenure may be remembered as one of the darkest for the army, with its reputation suffering greatly under his leadership." It also raised concern over Munir's post-election speech, describing it as uncommon.[192] The Times of India also described Munir as the primary loser of the election.[5] The Indian Express wrote that the unexpected success of the PTI forced the military to manipulate results to avoid an unfavourable outcome. Consequently, there were delays in announcing results, and internet and mobile services were suspended in numerous regions. Meanwhile, Pakistani social media platforms were flooded with videos depicting alleged rigging and manipulation.[193] The Deccan Herald wrote that although the election results represented a significant setback for the military, and would potentially undermine General Munir's position, but it was unlikely that the military will relinquish its influential role in determining the next Prime Minister.[194]

According to Al Jazeera, numerous analysts suggest that Sharif's return to electoral politics was made possible due to the military's decision to support him in the election. However, despite this tacit support from the military, Sharif failed to win.[195]

Foreign Policy wrote that one clear thing is the old methods used to silence people's voices are no longer effective. A new generation of young voters has emerged in Pakistan who are calling for a departure from the past and seeking the ability to elect their leaders, rather than allowing the military, which has historically dominated politics to maintain control over the country.[82] In a separate piece, it wrote that one key factor in PTI's success in the election was their refusal to let the military control the election's outcome, despite their efforts to ensure PTI's defeat, and that PTI 's challenge to break the military's grip on politics, has sparked some hope for the future of Pakistan's democracy and wrote that accusations of military's vote manipulation will further fuel anti-establishment feelings in the country.[196]

Reruns

The ECP ordered elections to be held again in the NA-88 Khushab-II constituency in Punjab after a mob destroyed election materials at the office of the returning officer and in the NA-43 Tank-cum-Dera Ismail Khan constituency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa due to security issues. Elections were also ordered repeated in the provincial assembly constituencies in PS-18 Ghotki-I in Sindh and PK-90 Kohat-I in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa after election materials were either stolen or destroyed.[197][198]

International observers

In October 2023, the ECP issued invitations to foreign election observers, emphasizing transparency in the election process.[199] Before the elections, Pakistan received visa applications from 81 foreign journalists and 38 international observers. Visa applications were processed, and accreditation was made mandatory for foreign observers upon arrival in Pakistan.[200] Eligible applicants were in the process of being approved with visas.[201][202] The Pakistan High Commission in London issued visas to 37 British journalists, including prominent figures such as Christina Lamb of The Times, allowing them to cover the election proceedings in Pakistan.[203]

Aftermath

Protests were held by the PTI and other parties in cities across Pakistan to protest alleged electoral fraud. Dozens were arrested following protests in Lahore while highways were blocked in Balochistan.[204] On 14 February, the JUI-F's leader Fazal-ur-Rehman said that he rejected the election results and announced that his party would stage protests against the ECP.[205]

On 12 February, Jahangir Tareen and Pervez Khattak announced their decision to retire from politics entirely, while Siraj-ul-Haq resigned from his position as the emir of Jamaat-i-Islami.[206]

Formation of a new government

On 10 February, in an AI-generated victory speech from prison, Imran Khan claimed that based on completed forms provided by polling agents, his party had won a two-thirds majority.[207][208] On 13 February, the PTI announced that it would try and form a government through its affiliated independent candidates in the national level and in Punjab with the Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen (MWM) party. It also said that it would seek to form a coalition with the Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan (JI) party to lead a government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Khan had previously said that he would not engage with the PML-N's Nawaz Sharif and the PPP's Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, calling them "corrupt".[209] On 14 February, the JI rejected the proposed coalition with the PTI in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, citing a change in the latter's stance over the formation of the provincial government.[210]

Nawaz Sharif, whose party won a plurality of seats in parliament, said that he would seek to build a governing coalition with the PPP.[211] Since the election, at least six winning independent candidates to the National Assembly have since announced that they would be joining the PML-N, including PTI-affiliated candidate Waseem Qadir, who was previously a PML-N member until 2018.[212] At a press conference on 13 February, the PPP's Asif Ali Zardari and the PML-N's Shehbaz Sharif announced that their parties had agreed to form a coalition government. PML-N spokesperson Marriyum Aurangzeb said that Shehbaz was the prime ministerial nominee following his elder brother Nawaz's recommendation.[15] PPP leader Bilawal Bhutto Zardari said that he would endorse a PML-N nominee for prime minister and that the PPP would not join the next cabinet. He also expressed a desire to see his father Asif Ali Zardari return as president, and said that his party would field nominees for the chairmanship of the Pakistani Senate and the speakership of the National Assembly.[209] The Muttahida Qaumi Movement – Pakistan, the Pakistan Muslim League (Q), the Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party and the Balochistan Awami Party also expressed their intent to join the PLM-N and PPP coalition, which enables them to hold a total of 152 directly-elected seats in the National Assembly, which is expected to be augmented by gains in reserved seats.[16] In response, Imran Khan called the upcoming coalition a "daylight robbery" and warned "against the misadventure of forming a government with stolen votes."[213]

Reactions

Domestic

After polling closed, caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar ul Haq Kakar said that the elections were a "momentous occasion". He praised the enthusiasm of the people of Pakistan and expressed appreciation for their participation in the polling process, adding that "the high voter turnout is a clear indication of public commitment to shaping the future of our country."[214]

Chief Election Commissioner Sikandar Sultan Raja thanked the nation for the successful election and expressed gratitude to all stakeholders, including government bodies, security agencies, media, and voters. He urged returning officers to ensure timely results delivery.[215] The Pakistan Armed Forces, through its media wing ISPR, extended congratulations to the nation for the peaceful conduct of the general elections, emphasizing their role in advancing democracy and fulfilling the aspirations of the people.[216] Chief of the Army Staff Asim Munir urged citizens to move on from the politics of "anarchy and polarization", adding that a stable hand was needed to unite "Pakistan's diverse polity", and to make "democracy functional and purposeful".[217]

President Arif Alvi, stated that the use of electronic voting machines (EVMs) could have averted the uncertainty surrounding the election results and reminded of his efforts to introduce them in the country's electoral process.[218]

In a message from jail, Imran Khan claimed that the PTI won 170 seats, achieving a two-thirds majority in the 2024 elections.[219] He emphasized the power of the electorate and called for the protection of their votes.[219]

The Pakistan Foreign Ministry in a statement expressed surprise at international criticism regarding the elections, citing the complexity of the electoral process and the strong participation of millions of voters.[220][221]

The day after the election, the Pakistan Stock Exchange shed 2,200 points on opening, or 3.6% of its value, as delayed results and prospects of a hung parliament loomed.[222]

Dawn in its editorial titled "Respect the mandate" stated it is becoming increasingly clear that there is widespread anger and resentment towards the military's continuous involvement in civilian affairs, and urged the armed forces to abandon its grudge against the PTI. It added that "though the public’s decision was quite evident, some quarters still attempted to stamp their will over the election results." It also noted that "the state must realise that, sometimes, a vote for the underdog is a vote against the establishment".[223] Dawn referred to the largest number of independent candidates winning in a party-based election as a significant development in Pakistan's electoral history, describing it as a "seismic shift" and a clear message from the public that sidelining PTI and depriving them of their election symbol would not alter the election's trajectory.[224]

The Express Tribune in its editorial stated "the fact that the people of Pakistan have made a choice, and have voted for parliamentary democracy must come as a soothing consolation."[225] Hamid Mir stated that PML-N supporters claimed to have received more votes on the day after the election.[226]

International

  •  Australia – The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade in a press statement expressed regret saying that "the Pakistani people were restricted in their choice, since not all political parties were allowed to contest these elections."[227]
  •  European Union – High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell called upon the relevant authorities to "ensure a timely and full investigation of all reported election irregularities and to implement the recommendations of the upcoming EU Election Expert Mission report."[228]
  •  United Kingdom – Foreign Secretary David Cameron in a statement noted "serious concerns raised about the fairness and lack of inclusivity of the elections" while also acknowledging "the restrictions imposed on internet access on polling day, significant delays to the reporting of results and claims of irregularities in the counting process".[229]
  •  United States – State Department spokesman Matthew Miller called for a "full investigation into the claims of interference or fraud" during the elections while reiterating to work with whoever forms the next government.[230] Several US lawmakers expressed concerns over the conduct of polls, poll-related violence, and restrictions on freedom of speech.[231] Several lawmakers also called on the Biden administration to refrain from acknowledging the election results and the incoming government in Pakistan until purported irregularities are thoroughly investigated.[232] Among those critical of the results was Congressman Ro Khanna who also alleged that the Pakistani military was backing Nawaz Sharif.[233]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b Contesting as independent candidates in all constituencies
  2. ^ Ran as Independent candidates under panel name "Wafa Parast Group"
  3. ^ Certain polls only include data for the JUI(F) instead of the MMA. In those cases, data for the JUI(F) is used because the JUI(F) is the largest constituent party of the MMA and makes up most of its base.
  4. ^ This is a column that lists the percentage of undecided voters and non-voters in certain polls that publish this data. As some polls do not publish any data on undecided voters and non-voters, the columns with survey participants who had a preference when polled are all that is needed to reach 100%. In surveys that do include data on non-voters and undecided voters, a scaling factor is applied to the margin of error and the rest of the data (for example, if the number of undecideds and non-voters equals 20%, each party would have their vote share scaled up by a factor of 100/80 (the formula is 100/(100-UndecidedPercentage)). This is done to keep consistency between the different polls and the types of data they provide.
  5. ^ This poll or crosstabulation did not include any data about undecided voters or non-voters and cut them out completely from the published results.

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